S&P Global's flash US composite output index rose to 56.0 in August from 54.5, a 52-month high, and the coverage is uniformly 'US business is booming.' Underneath, services jumped to 56.8 while manufacturing slipped to 53.2. The factory slowdown has a stated mechanism that is not weak demand — fading safety-stock building and the worst supply delays in four years — and it resolves on a different clock than a demand story would.
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The flash PMI is a preliminary survey of roughly 1,150 purchasing managers at US factories and service firms, published before the month ends and well before official statistics. It is a diffusion index: it measures how many firms report improving conditions, not how much output was produced. That makes it timely but qualitative. GDP and payrolls are measured, revised and released with a lag. The PMI is best used as an early directional signal that later data can confirm or contradict — and it has contradicted them before.
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DrafterDaily takes apart the economic releases that get reported as a single number. What is underneath, what it means for your sector, and what the survey cannot tell you.
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